P. Bolson
A
Since before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russian TV shows political news programs on all channels for several hours of the day and night. Typically, a panel of experts discuss what’s going on and speculate about what we the enemy are thinking. Individual experts move around from one TV channel to another. It’s very intense and there’s very little reported about it here. Most days they talk about nuclear war, which has a numbing effect, and how the Russian people are ready to make the sacrifice. A man in his sixties says “well we’ve had our lives”. The BBC reporter in Moscow hardly touches the surface of it, maybe that’s why he’s been allowed to stay.
The key points in the approach are:
the experts sift through reams of mostly disinformation
they know what’s going to happen and why, and tell the viewers
what will happen is governed by large underlying forces which give countries no choice, as with Stalinist dialectical materialism
more hawkish experts argue with less hawkish ones
from time to time they make a revelation which reverses part of the narrative, and is quickly absorbed
we here don’t know what’s happening because our propaganda keeps us in the dark and we are lazy and naïve.
Russians wore their heart on their sleeve and trusted us, but not anymore because now they know what we are doing. It’s been a rite of passage.
Provocation is attack.
Example 1: if there is peace with Ukraine, then the real war will start,
the economic war the US is waging on the world
because the US have no choice
because their economy is bankrupt.
Europe is also a victim, but they don’t realise it.
Example 2: Ukraine provokes Russia into using nuclear weapons
because Ukraine has no choice.
Example 3: only the US and the UK are ideologically against Russia. The EU countries are just worried because they sit in the middle. At the same time, it will be possible to come to an agreement with the US and the UK, but not with the EU.
B
The most important reason Russians believe we want to steal their wealth or invade them is they believe Russia is a rich country. At one level it’s the mineral wealth – as if that were enough, but in mythology the soil is a living being that provides fertility and wealth. As they are also intelligent, educated, work hard and suffer a lot, then they must be rich. If they are not, it must be because we are envious of their wealth and have been taking it, and they have to stop us. This is the main belief about why the war is necessary.
The two real reasons for being poor are not acceptable. First (see C below), the wealthy sent huge parts of the national assets abroad, without paying much tax. Second, the economy failed to become more productive. For example, incentives to innovate were crushed by Soviet habits such as management not supporting the lower levels, so that the risk of carrying sole blame if an innovation doesn’t work out is too great. The Russian soul doesn’t support efficiency.
C
The official Rouble/USD exchange rate in 1990 was somewhere over 1 USD, while the black market rate was 2-3 cents. Since then the Rouble has fallen: in 1998 the new Rouble was worth 1000 old Roubles and around 16 cents. Now the USD is around 80 Roubles, so a (new) Rouble is just over 1 cent. During all this time, imports were mostly lower than exports, so the massive devaluation was caused by assets flowing out of the country. Soon after the war started the outflow was apparently much reduced and the Rouble is relatively stable.
D
Most of the time the war is justified not in terms of stopping us thieving and enslaving, but of restoring Russian honour. People feel they were led up the garden path when they tried out living with our values, interior decoration styles etc, during the 90s and 00s. Many felt what they had done before was inferior. Then they felt the values were too hard or confusing to live with and our way of life didn’t suit them. We laughed at some of their attempts and they felt demoralised, then offended, disrespected, and that their honour is under attack. If we don’t appreciate them, or criticize, they have the right to be violent.
E
The main focus is on what happens at the border – the contact point with others. Maybe this is connected with acquiring so much land, as the land already acquired somehow loses its interest. The interest in filling a glass is what happens when it’s just about to overflow. Sources of honour within Russian culture don’t seem complete without confirmation from others across the border. Since the 90s they haven’t upheld the honour of the victims of Communist persecution by prosecuting any of their murderers and persecutors of the 50s and 60s, many of whom were alive. Justice is now focussed on foreigners and traitors who offend the country.
Leave a Reply